Monday, April 19, 2010

Personal interests versus organizational interests

One of the most intriguing forces I've come across in human psychology is the individual's personal interests and their clash with the interests of a bigger entity. This conflict of interests is also a very powerful force and often much unappreciated.

This conflict of interest was, I believe, the main reason why communism failed and went down in flames. Communism and socialism had many great and noble ideas, but they ignored personal interests of human beings and presumed personal interests would give way to greater interests, the interests of the whole society. Sadly, that was not the case.

Individuals lacked any good incentives to do their job properly in the socialist system, because they didn't benefit directly from the work they did and common benefit was not enough to compel them to take their input seriously. Their output benefited all the others in the society, but not themselves directly and people lost their interest. They didn't have much to gain, so they just did what they had to do, but nothing extra. They didn't care to invent ways to make things more effective and we know the result. One big reason was probably also authoritarian leadership, but I strongly believe the lack of personal incentives played a very vital part in the collapse of socialism.

These powerful forces are still at play today as well, and will stay in play as long as humanity exists. In this conflict of interests there is also another side to the coin, and that also causes problems. Namely sometimes people have too strong individual interests at play and that may in some cases prove detrimental to bigger entity's welfare and interests. What organizations can do to change that is to try to align an individual's interests with the interests of the organization. In business world this is one important aspect of an area called organization design, which is a complicated science all on its own.

Before we plunge into how to align employee's interests with organization's, let us take a look at a greater framework first. In this context, I would ask you why exactly do we need laws and regulations and law enforcement in our societies? You guessed it already? Yes, through them we can align individual's interests with the whole community's interests. If there were no laws and regulations, it might very well be in persons' individual interests to rob people and places of their wealth so that they could themselves enjoy them. This kind of situation would lead into chaos and continuous crimes which would not be in our community's and mutual interests. In our community's interests is a situation where people can tend to their work and businesses in peace and create prosperity for themselves and for the community. That is why we have laws and regulations.

Laws and regulations and law enforcement efficiently align that above mentioned individual's interests with the society's interests, because it's not any more in that person's interest to rob other people. He stands to lose the loot and his freedom as well, and this way it is not any more in his best interests to try to rob other people but to try to create a wealth of his own by non-violent and legal means. In well thought out organization design we use rules and reward system practices in a way that aligns individual interests with the organization's as much as possible. The principle is therefore the same as in the laws and regulations governing our societies.

One simplified example of the interest debacle would be salesman's priorities. Let's assume your organization's salesman Mr. A is rewarded by paying him a certain percentage of the overall sales figure he can create in a month. So, no matter what the profitability of the deal is to the company, he get's his bonuses based on the euro value of the sales. In this situation, he might sometimes in tough competitive bids be tempted to make deals of zero - or even negative - profit to the company just to get a deal and his respective bonuses. Why would he care if the company doesn't make money on it?

If you now change his reward principles so that he earns a percentage of the deal's perceived profit to the company, suddenly his interests are more aligned with the company's in this regard and he's not any more interested in making unprofitable deals. Interesting, isn't it?

Now, how would you align the interests of different departments in your company so that they wouldn't fight so much with each other with such a different sets of objectives? And how would you align the interests of the conglomerate's subsidiaries which you would like to see co-operate efficiently instead of fighting for their own petty interests?

You could also apply this same principle to the situation where one company's individual interests differ from the interests of the nation it operates in. For-profit companies are after profit and that is their most important goal. They don't much care if their actions are not beneficial to that nation's economy either in the short or longer term, as long as they themselves can profit. Therefore the nation has to regulate individual companies' behaviour through laws and regulations and law enforcement. So, there are multiple levels of conflict of interests between an individual (a company or a person) and a bigger entity.

One interesting example of this is also the 2008 financial crisis and the involvement of investment banks in it. It most certainly wasn't in the interests of the owners of the investment banks that went bankrupt in 2008 to make those risky bets and cover their liabilities off the sheet, but it was in the interest of bonus earning employees' to make those risky bets and collect the respective huge bonuses. From the standpoint of those employees they didn't have much to lose. They had nothing to lose financially except their work and does it matter much, if you have been able to reap in a few million in bonuses in previous years? Why not try it also this year, if that is what the company pays for? "If it is not sensible in the longer term, do I have to care? I can laugh all the way to the bank, even if the company in the end goes under and I lose my job..."


That is exactly what the problem is: interests of an employee and his employer are in contradiction and they are not well aligned. Interesting example in this regard comes from the Brazilian banking system. It seems that they did not lose much of their own accord in this financial crisis and neither has there been need for a bank bailout in Brazil for several decades! Their banking system is considered VERY SAFE! And why is that? That is because the bankers are responsible for their banks' losses or bankruptcies with all of their own assets. In other words, they stand to lose their personal assets as well if the bank goes under. That means that their interests are almost totally aligned with their company's interests, in other words, their personal financial interests pretty much equal the financial health and future of their own organization. For some peculiar reason, these bankers suddenly feel the need to play it safe. Read more about the subject from this article in Finnish:

Taloussanomat - Tässäkö maailman turvallisin pankkijärjestelmä?

In other parts of the world, there clearly has been too much deregulation in the banking world. Presently new financial regulation is a hotly discussed topic in the United States. One often voiced opinion is that the banks and financial institutions that are "too big to fail" need to be chopped to pieces and kept smaller by regulatory means. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman thinks this is off the point and I happen to agree with him. In my opinion, chopping these big institutions into smaller ones is not the key issue here, it is the alignment of individual interests with the bigger interests. And if banks' and financial institutions' owners can't or won't do it, it is up to the regulator to align the interests. Name of the game has for too long been "Heads I win, tails you lose!"...

Thursday, April 15, 2010

eReader and ePaper defined

When previously writing about eReaders I failed to define what an eReader is and what ePaper is. I will try to do so here briefly and in layman's language.

EReader is an electronic device meant for reading. EReaders are more or less some kind of computers, either full-fledged ones or highly specialized and developed for reading only. There's a wide variety out there and someone has counted that including this year's product announcements there would be at least 50 different kinds of eReaders to choose from.


Amazon Kindle DX


EReaders can have paper-like screens called ePaper- or eInk-screens, or basic computer-like LCD screens or both. What is also important is the content. Most of the eReader manufacturers try to provide their customers with both paid and free content. Good example here is Amazon's Kindle eReader (picture above).

You can download to your Kindle classic books that have already lost their respective copyrights and are in the public domain. These ones you can read for free. You can also buy electronic books or eBooks from Amazon's service on the net as well as electronic newspapers and periodicals. For example, you can subcscribe to newspapers like Washington Post or New York Times and have them delivered wirelessly to your Kindle every morning. With Kindle you can also browse the web and read what you like in paper-like format and of course you can read your personal PDF files on Kindle. So, in a thin and light Kindle device you can carry your whole library and your personal files with you where ever you go. Fairly neat, wouldn't you say?

In Kindle there's an ePaper screen. It is not suitable for watching videos or any moving pictures and most ePaper screens are still black-and-white screens. So right there LCD screens have an upper hand. In plain reading, however, ePaper has the upper hand. It is easier on the eyes, it doesn't flicker and it doesn't have any background light to drain the batteries, and neither does it fade in the sunlight like LCD screen does.

How does ePaper work and how does it imitate real paper, then? There are several technologies, but let's examine one called eInk and let's simplify it for easier understanding. Like normal computer screens, these ePaper screens are divided into very tiny points or pixels that can produce a certain colour at a certain intensity. These very small points all put together constitute a picture that the whole screen presents to the viewer.

In eInk technology there are transparent microcapsules each of which represents a pixel. Each of these microcapsules contains positively charged white pigments as well as negatively charged black pigments. These pigments float in transparent oil and can via electric charge be caused to move to the front side of the screen and therefore become visible for the viewer or they can be forced to the back side. After the electric charge the picture is formed and stays as such until a new charge is applied. Therefore the created picture doesn't require any more electricity once formed.

As the ePaper picture forms, it brings forth the black particles where required and therefore it mimics normal paper very closely. The black particles, the electronic equivalent of real ink, really physically are positioned on the surface of the screen much as real ink is positioned on the surface of the real paper. The only differences are that the ePaper Ink can be newly positioned and that there is a thin foil between the "ink particles" and the ePaper outer surface. Otherwise the arrangement closely imitates the physical representation of normal paper and is therefore called ePaper.



Things develop very fast in this arena. Fujitsu has already announced it will start the consumer sales of its new eReader FLEPia (pictured above) which is equipped with a COLOUR ePaper screen! Here you can read more about FLEPia:
Fujitsu Begins On-Line Consumer Sales of World’s First Color E-Paper Mobile Terminal FLEPia

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Stock market trading and human psychology - Part 1

In this entry I'd like to point out something I think people tend to leave out of the equation when they think about stock market trading. The prevailing notion in free market ideology concerning stock markets is that markets correctly value the prices for different stocks. Rational for this goes along the lines that the value for a company's stock is calculated by discounting future profits to the present time and that result is the correct market value of the company. In other words you estimate the profits you expect the company to make in  future years and those profits you value into today's money using appropriate interest rates. And the theory also says that possible misvaluations will be corrected over time by the market itself, so that in the long run the market values of stocks will be appropriate.


It's a great, feasible theory and I myself happen to subscribe to it. However, we should also think how things works in practice. In practice, we don't everybody dutifully do our homework. Or how many of you can say that you've made the appropriate calculations before you bought stocks? How many of you bought them just on the basis of some analyst or some other expert recommending them? Or did you just buy that company's stocks because everybody else is also buying? And did you really calculate the value or did you just compare them with their historic values?

Yeah. That's exactly what I thought. Mind the fact that if nobody does their homework the price doesn't have to be anywhere near the "right" value. And that analyst. You shouldn't count on his opinion too much, because A) he can be wrong or B) he might have different incentives and may not be telling you the truth. In the end it's you who will bear the brunt for mistakes by losing your money and the analyst - he really doesn't care. So, if we all just trust anybody else's opinions, we are in effect blind as bats when placing our bets...

This brings us to the actual point. The value of a certain stock is NOT necessarily the correct market value. It is the price that the buyer IS WILLING TO PAY if the seller is prepared to sell at that price. Even if the price is 10 times what it should be, if somebody pays that price it will become the present market price. And others may blindly join the buyer believing he has some information they don't and therefore we have set a new unrealistic market price for the stock. Human psychology can really do that and has done that repeatedly in the past. I'll give you a concrete example of that a little later.

How do you calculate a company's market value, then? Well, that's not simple. It depends on what kind of business the company is in, what is the amount of required working capital, possessions of the firm, future growth view, feasibility of the strategy, quality of management etc. However, I can give you an easy rule of thumb to determine you're not catastrophically off the mark. Easy rule of thumb is that a company can't be worth much more than 2-3 TIMES ITS YEARLY TURNOVER! At times it might be even worth five times of its turnover, but that starts to be overreaching.

Let's try an example. Nokia's stock ended at a price of 11,40 euros in OMX Stock Exchange on Friday placing the whole company's market value in the neighbourhood of 43 billion euros. Nokia's turnover last year being 41 billion, that sounds reasonable, right? Market value is close to one year's turnover. If other things are fine with Nokia, that is probably a good buy, even. Let's make some other easy comparisons. For example, the profit for 2009 after taxes was 1,2 billion. So, if Nokia would want to buy all of its shares back from its owners at these prices and levels of profit, it would take 36 years, right? That sounds like a long long time and there wouldn't even be any interest included...

What about year 2008? Turnover was 51 billion and profit 5 billion. At least the payback time would diminish greatly from 36 years to a little less than 9 years at that profitability level. I will leave you to ponder Nokia's value on your own, now...

To the example I promised. Here I rely mostly on my memory, so I hope I don't make too big mistakes here. A company named TJ Group issued its Initial Public Offering (IPO) for investors in early 2000. The price of stock was set around 19-20 euros per share according to my memory. I calculated at the time the resulting market value and decided it was badly bloated. I remember calculating that the company would need to grow its turnover 40- or 50-fold before it might "fill" that market value. So, in my mind, it was mostly hot air. I didn't believe they would grow that much any time soon and the profitability level wasn't too promising, either.

Quite many others did believe in the company and it collected 237 million euros from investors in its IPO. And that with a yearly turnover (1999) of only 11,4 million euros! According to the rule of thumb I presented you previously, this company could have cost from 11,4 to 34,2 million euros (1-3 years turnover) or at it's most 57 million (5 years turnover). Sadly, the company lost about 97 % of its market value in about one year after its Initial Public Offering...

So, I am rather proud that even in that "dotcom" -market frenzy and with experts trumpeting the "new economy" and the "new rules", I did my homework and didn't buy into that. Instead, I bought into an IPO of a company called Aldata. That was a sweet buy, for it took only half a year to rise tenfold. I also bought Basware, but sadly it was too popular. Too many people bought Basware and my purchase ended up being only about 5 % of what I wanted. It was too small a share to mean anything and I sold it fast.

That's today's lesson, folks! I hope you appreciate the possible disconnection between theory and practice. Here's couple of extra points to take home:

- Theory never represents reality with great accuracy
- Law of supply and demand, as well as human psychology, affects stock market pricing, it's not just the free market theory that counts


Here are some links to refresh your memory:

Listalleottoesite - TJ Group Oyj (2.2.2000)
HS: Tilman ja Salminen TJ Groupista pidätettiin

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Marja Tiura - ärlig eller ej?

Jag hade före detta inte lagt mycket märke till politikern Marja Tiura, men nu fick hon min uppmärksamhet. Under påsken märkte jag den hetsiga diskussionen över ämnet och hur det kände konstigt att båda sidorna hade totalt motsamma opinioner om samma saken.

Nu tror jag att Marja Tiura har drivit sig in i sådant dödläge att det kan vara svårt att gräva sig tillbaks till ytan. Och allt började när Marja Tiura ville hoppa över till Centern därför att Samlingspartiet inte gav henne en ministerportfölj. Tiura påstår att det var Centern som försökte locka henne över och affärsmannen Arto Merisalo på sin del säger att Tiura tog initiativet. Tiura kom upp med det här påståendena på senaste veckan och ämnet tog omedelbart eld. Tråkigt för Tiura är det att 6 olika människorna kommer ihåg saken på samma sätt som Merisalo. Marja Tiura är därför ensam här och har grävt sig in i ett djupt hål...

Jag sku vara intresserad att höra din opinion om saken! Här har du några länkar till nyheter om saken:

HBL - Yle: Nova lobbade för Tiura
Iltasanomat - Merisalon mielestä tilanne on 6-1 Tiuran tappioksi
Iltasanomat - Arto Merisalo toivoo kokoomusjohtoa esiin Tiura-asiassa
Iltasanomat - Tällainen on skandaalikuningatar Marja Tiura

Sunday, April 4, 2010

eReader Wars - My Gadget of Choice

I'll probably write later more thoroughly of presently furiously raging "eReader Wars", but here I'll briefly and narrowly broach the subject and present to you my Gadget of Choice at this point in time...


There is a new gadget I've been drooling for for some time now. It's called enTourage eDGe™. I have been interested in an eReader that also lets you do computer stuff with it. In short it should be multifunctional in the extreme.

Why then I don't buy a tablet PC or Apple iPad or something like that? Because they've got normal computer screens, LCD screens, which are not fun to read for a long time if you see what I mean. ePaper or eInk is a totally different thing. It really reads like paper! So you can read books like they were printed on paper - also in bright sunlight if you wish (which you cannot do with LCD screens) - and you can read your personal documents or e.g. any PDF files you have like paper.

I don't know if you see this as a big difference, but I do. Don't we all read more than enough stuff on our computer screen and hence irritate our eyes? What if you could take that THICK company document you need to study - at work, at home or when travelling - and read it like on paper without ever printing that stuff? And you could have all the THICK company documents you require with you where ever you are at all times in paper-like format?

This enTourage product is at this time at the top of my list of preferred eReaders. And of course it has all the multimedia capabilities built-in as well as network connectivity for web browsing, email and such. It has two screens where the traditional LCD is ideal for multimedia or web browsing and the ePaper screen is perfect for reading. Both screens are also touch screens which gives you ease of use unprecedented in traditional solutions. You can even write notes or draw pictures on the ePaper-screen. So you can also have your hand-written notes, saved automatically in digital form as you write...

Anyway, the possibilities are just endless. And the price tag? It's not too bad, it costs only 499 US Dollars! However, at this point they don't sell it in Europe, but that day can't be far away anymore... If I got you interested, here's a Youtube presentation of this fairy-tale-like-gadget:



More on the subject in Finnish:
MikroPC - Suomalaiset kustantajat innostuivat viimeinkin e-lukulaitteista
MikroPC - Asus esitteli ensimmäisen e-lukulaitteensa - katso video
Tietokone - Sähköinen paperi kaupallistuu
(LG.Philips ja E Ink)


And in Londonese:
The World of E-Readers

Thursday, April 1, 2010

I decided to blog

Well, it looks like I decided to blog. I've had this blog for a long long time, but never actually planned to write anything. I just wanted to check how the administration panel in Blogger works and that's it. That was about a year ago and the blog has been floating on the waves of blogosphere ever since. Tonight I just decided to write a few lines. I could just leave it right here and let it be the last one at the same time, but I do have a weird feeling that I've effectively given my little finger to the devil here...

Anyway, I'm watching a film called "Laws of attraction" for the third time and can just say that it's brilliant! I've liked Julianne Moore for a long time, I just enjoy her acting, but suddenly she's one of my favourite actresses... and she's fairly high on my list.

Easter is pushing on and I'm having a little lowdown. Not a big one, just feeling a little melancholy running around in my head. Well, anyways, wellcome inside my head...