Mr Putin will need to be put in line!

Like someone said, the scales should fall of Europeans´eyes now at the latest, if they haven´t fallen before. Mr Putin is clearly a Hitler-Stalin-Napoleon -hybrid, who will understand only force and military threat at this point. With a serious Napoleon-complex this little man will now stop at nothing. He is also pushed forward with nationalist fervor rising from his view that the great Russian superpower has been pushed to the sidelines after the fall of the Great Soviet Empire. No more, he thinks, now is time to take back all that prestige and power!

Having practised with Georgia annexing few parts of that independent country back in 2008 successfully and with impunity, he won´t stop at Crimea and will not be deterred without military force. NATO will have to stop with military action the Russian forces from penetrating the rest of Ukraine - it will be too late to act if Russia already controls most of Ukraine.

I hope the Europeans and the US have woken up to the reality that Mr Obama´s soft touch will never work here. Mr Putin now understands only force and will only sneer and snigger at sanctions. If NATO has not prepared and mobilised for fast action, it most probably will be late this time next week or the following week. Hopefully, at least Nato´s Secretary General seems to have woken up.

Mr Putin´s strategy here is clearly to move fast before the West realises what really is happening. He and his administration is busy laying the groundwork by steadfastly denying they have any intention to gobble up more of Ukraine than Crimea and hoping the West is still blue-eyed enough to believe them. When the time comes and occupation is a fact, they will simply state that the situation changed rapidly and they had to act quickly to protect ethnic Russian population in Ukraine.

Truth is, that this Mad Conqueror won´t stop with Ukraine. The next countries in line are the ones that were in the sphere of Soviet influence. Putin´s New Russian Empire will force their will either militarily or with blackmail on other countries of their choice. Economic blackmail is also one of Mr Putin´s favourite tools and it will be all the more efficient with military threat looming on the horizon.

In behavioural game theory terms,  this moment in Ukraine is the Game of Chicken. Who will blink first? Putin won´t, not without military action. A grave error on the part of the Western World was to take military threat off the table in this crisis like they did when the world leaders opined, that "there is only political solution to this crisis". You never take your options off the table before you even enter negotiations! That is a child-like error and needs to be corrected soon as at this point in time Putin is convinced that NATO will not act and he can do what he likes with total impunity.

Western World, this is a watershed moment. The Mad Dog of Russia, Mr Putin, will need to be put down like the rabid dog he is. Or at least caged...

Putin will invade Ukraine, it is now a given!

There is no doubt in my mind anymore that the Russians will invade Ukraine. The surest sign of this is Russian foreign minister Lavrov's adamantly today denying any Russian plans of invading Ukraine. The only question is the timing. Will it take place right after Sunday's "referendum" or  later?

Maybe Putin needs a few more days to mobilise an overwhelming occupation force and to produce an excuse to attack. However, they have been busy working for the excuse and that won't take long anymore. My quess would be right after the "referendum", Sunday or Monday at the latest. I sure hope NATO is prepared to stop the Russians and at the same time I fear the USA and Nato haven't taken this seriously enough...

In these articles you will see clearly how the next steps of this process is being orchestrated from Moscow:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/russia-west-collision-course-ukraine-talks-fail-london

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/russia-warning-fatal-clashes-ukraine-donetsk-protect-compatriots

My deepest sympathies are with you, Ukrainians! I dearly hope the Western World will not leave you behind when the push comes to shove...

Examples of Russian mentality

Is it the old tradition or just brainwashing by Mr Putin? Either way, these examples illustrate a totally sick mentality...

Example number One:

A scuffle followed - that was when the police intervened to arrest Alexei for violating public order. It was probably just as well, as he could have been seriously beaten. A woman then offered to fabricate a more serious charge against him. "I can testify that he was beating up a child," she suggested, enthusiastically. The policemen decided not to take her up on it.

Example number Two:

Andrei Zubov, a highly respected professor at the prestigious Moscow State Institute of International Relations, wrote an article in Vedomosti newspaper comparing a Russian annexation of Crimea to the German Anschluss of Austria in 1938. He was immediately told to resign or face the sack but the threat was retracted after colleagues rushed to his support.

 Example number Three:

The editor of the influential Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Konstantin Remchukov, has meanwhile spoken out against the idea of holding an "illegal" referendum in Crimea. In a radio interview he also criticised, in no uncertain terms, the Russian establishment's apparent readiness to quarrel with the West. As he uttered those words listeners started calling in to brand him a "traitor" and worse.

 Example number Four:

Last week small improvised protests were held in some Russian cities. In St Petersburg, 75-year-old Igor Andreyev was fined 10,000 roubles for holding a banner saying "Peace to the World".In Moscow, hundreds of protesters were detained by police, many of them also later fined, though city authorities have now given permission for a bigger March of Peace, planned for Saturday.

Examples 1-4 can be found in  http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26531310


Example number Five:

Russian TV's role in the current crisis has been crucial because it has been widely watched in Ukraine, especially the mainly Russian-speaking east and south of the country.In Crimea, Russian TV channels have now almost completely replaced Ukrainian ones.Ukraine's media news website Telekrytyka has been at the forefront of efforts to confront what it calls the "manipulation of facts" and "overt lies" disseminated by Russian TV.It pointed to a Rossiya 1 report from 1 March, which appeared to show a gun battle outside a government building in Crimea. "An analysis later showed the video was staged," Telekrytyka said.Reports like this were used to justify Russia's stepping up its military presence in Crimea and supporting the separatist movement there.

Example number Six:

Russian TV has also repeatedly alleged that Ukrainian "extremists" have been harassing and terrorising journalists, though until recently it had provided little actual evidence for this.That is, until pro-Moscow journalist Sergey Rulev told several of Russia's leading TV channels how he had been set upon by a gang of nationalists who had punched and kicked him, and tried to rip out his fingernails. A report on Gazprom-Media's NTVon 6 March even showed YouTube footage of the alleged attack.But, as Ukrainian blogger Pauluskp pointed out, the full video of the incident (which took place on or before 20 February) clearly shows that Rulev was attacked not by nationalists but by ex-President Yanukovych's hired heavies - the so-called titushki.

 More to read and ponder:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26546083

Activists at StopFake, a website set up by Ukrainian journalists to monitor media coverage of the current crisis, have compiled a whole dossier of what they call "distortions and propaganda"

Showing how Russian TV passed off disturbances in Kiev as violent clashes on the streets of the Crimean capital Simferopol

Highlighting evidence that contradicts Russian media claims of a mass exodus of refugees from Ukraine to escape the violence and chaos there

Collecting extensive photographic and video evidence that appears to show that parts of Crimea are occupied by Russian troops - something flatly denied by President Vladimir Putin and ignored by Russian TV.

Continue reading the main stOne of the most respected figures on the Russian media scene, she has been at Lenta.ru from the start and became editor-in-chief in 2004.The abrupt removal of Ms Timchenko is being seen as yet another blow to the Leonid Volkov, he was also a media adviser on the campaign that helped elect Sergei Sobyanin, an ally of President Putin, "The problem is not that there is nowhere left for us to work. The problem is that there is nothing left, it seems, for you to read.

Background motives of Mr Putin

In trying to understand Putin´s motives behind the current skirmish in Ukraine,  it is important to look at the broader picture and understand what are the deeper motives for Putin´s behaviour and actions.

He has been in power for a long period of time and has ruthlessly cleared his path also domestically and even inside the ruling elite in Kremlin. He has placed his confidantes in important places in the bureaucratic machine as well as in the Russian government-controlled business machine. His grip on power is an iron grip and he has masterfully silenced dissent and free speech of which a perfect example is the latest initiative by Putin-controlled parliament of a law criminalising dissent a.k.a wrongful reporting. In other words, if a reporter writes something Mr Putin dislikes, he/she can be conveniently convicted and put away.

If a minor slap on the wrist is deemed adequate, the end result could remind us of Khodorkovsky, Pussy Riot etc. with a few years or decades behind bars. If Mr Putin is most dissatisfied with an individual, the end result could be more final like in the cases of Anna Politkovskaya, Aleksei Litvinenko etc.

I have long ago independently surmised that Vladimir must also have accumulated wealth along with his quest for unrestricted power, but the book "Mafia State" by BBC correspondent Luke Harding nicely corroborates it. I have also long ago realised that he must be afraid of giving up power and possibly facing the same fate he fed to Khodorkovsky. So, Vladimir and his band are facing an enormous problem in the future they are desperately trying to figure out.

I believe Vladimir is not going to be able to successfully resolve this future dilemma. I also believe the Ukraine skirmish is not going to end well for him. If it ends in a humialiating defeat for him, he may yet face a successful Russian Revolution at home absolving him of power. That must be a source of nightmares for this KGB-educated dictator.

This excerpt from Mafia State by Luke Harding sums thing up perfectly (pages 27-28):

"In the dying days of 2007, then, the question of who will succeed Vladimir Putin as the president preoccupies the Kremlin´s twitchy elite. This isn´t just a question of political preferences but of financial - possibly even personal - survival. In theory, any new president can take away the old elite´s assets, just as Putin did with Yeltsin-era oligarchs like Khodorkovsky. Yeltsin was canny enough to strike a deal with Putin, his successor: Putin´s first act as president was to grant Yeltsin and his family immunity from prosecution.
"Once Putin leaves power he will be accused. Inevitably. It´s the great tradition. When Putin quits he faces the question of how to legalise his funds, and all his friend´s funds and assets in the West."
...
But for Putin, Medvedev´s selection is entirely logical. In an illuminating Wikileaks dispatch, the US deputy assistant secretary of state David Kramer refers to Putin´s "hidden assets", and suggests that they play a crucial part in Russia´s Byzantine succession process.  Citing opposition sources, Kramer repeats the view that Putin won´t stay on as president for an unconstitutional third term. Instead, Kramer writes to Beyrle, Putin is "nervously trying to secure his future immunity from potential law enforcement investigations into his alleged illicit proceeds."

How to handle Pussy Riot in Sochi Olympics the Putin way...

A perfect example of Putin's way of resolving problems...

This little excerpt from a BBC article sums it up perfectly. This is Putin's way of resolving problems:

It started peacefully. Ukrainians - many of them middle-aged women - waved flags and sang songs to celebrate the birth 200 years ago of Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko. They see him as the father of the Ukrainian language.But by the end of the rally, pro-Russian demonstrators had turned up to gatecrash the celebrations. A line of young men and Cossacks with whips stood and glared at the rally menacingly - tension rose, and arguments broke out, both sides telling each other that Crimea is "our country".Then it turned nasty, very nasty. The pro-Russians chased a group into a nearby car park. First, they set upon the driver of a white van, smashing his windscreen. He tried to drive through the mob to get away but crashed into another vehicle and was attacked again.Another person was dragged into some bushes, kicked, beaten and lashed with a Cossack's whip.We were threatened, too, by the pro-Russians and ran away before they set upon us as well. It was a terrifying moment, and a glimpse into the abyss that Crimea now teeters over.

The whole article can be read here:
 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26503478

I really hope that this international and national bully and dictator is soon stopped. My belief is that Putin is afraid of West´s economical and political sanctions, but they won´t be enough to drive the Russians out of occupating Crimea.

When Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, Russia, Great Britain and USA committed to quarantee the security and integrity of Ukraine. If the Brits and the Americans can´t soon stomach putting military threat with concrete actions on the table in addition to economical and political sanctions against Russia I believe Russia will keep occupating Crimea and may also annex it to Russia. My quess is that without concrete military threat the sanctions will not be enough.

Poland, Baltic states etc. know very well that if Russia is let to keep Crimea and perhaps soon also other parts of Eastern Ukraine, other European and Eurasian countries may in the future face forced annexation to the New Soviet Empire. Near future will tell if the West can stand up to Putin with his unquenchable thirst for unrestricted power, political clout and wealth.

This article of a legal analysis of the situation in Ukraine is also well worth a read: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26481423