Thursday, March 20, 2014

Mr Putin will need to be put in line!

Like someone said, the scales should fall of Europeans´eyes now at the latest, if they haven´t fallen before. Mr Putin is clearly a Hitler-Stalin-Napoleon -hybrid, who will understand only force and military threat at this point. With a serious Napoleon-complex this little man will now stop at nothing. He is also pushed forward with nationalist fervor rising from his view that the great Russian superpower has been pushed to the sidelines after the fall of the Great Soviet Empire. No more, he thinks, now is time to take back all that prestige and power!

Having practised with Georgia annexing few parts of that independent country back in 2008 successfully and with impunity, he won´t stop at Crimea and will not be deterred without military force. NATO will have to stop with military action the Russian forces from penetrating the rest of Ukraine - it will be too late to act if Russia already controls most of Ukraine.

I hope the Europeans and the US have woken up to the reality that Mr Obama´s soft touch will never work here. Mr Putin now understands only force and will only sneer and snigger at sanctions. If NATO has not prepared and mobilised for fast action, it most probably will be late this time next week or the following week. Hopefully, at least Nato´s Secretary General seems to have woken up.

Mr Putin´s strategy here is clearly to move fast before the West realises what really is happening. He and his administration is busy laying the groundwork by steadfastly denying they have any intention to gobble up more of Ukraine than Crimea and hoping the West is still blue-eyed enough to believe them. When the time comes and occupation is a fact, they will simply state that the situation changed rapidly and they had to act quickly to protect ethnic Russian population in Ukraine.

Truth is, that this Mad Conqueror won´t stop with Ukraine. The next countries in line are the ones that were in the sphere of Soviet influence. Putin´s New Russian Empire will force their will either militarily or with blackmail on other countries of their choice. Economic blackmail is also one of Mr Putin´s favourite tools and it will be all the more efficient with military threat looming on the horizon.

In behavioural game theory terms,  this moment in Ukraine is the Game of Chicken. Who will blink first? Putin won´t, not without military action. A grave error on the part of the Western World was to take military threat off the table in this crisis like they did when the world leaders opined, that "there is only political solution to this crisis". You never take your options off the table before you even enter negotiations! That is a child-like error and needs to be corrected soon as at this point in time Putin is convinced that NATO will not act and he can do what he likes with total impunity.

Western World, this is a watershed moment. The Mad Dog of Russia, Mr Putin, will need to be put down like the rabid dog he is. Or at least caged...



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