Nuclear deterrent and game theory exemplified

Speaking of North Korea's case and the bilateral nuclear threat some interesting questions emerge. For instance, I've asked myself questions like "would North Korea have the 'courage' to strike with nuclear arms" and "would US be forced to retaliate or what would happen afterwards"?

Game theory can give you precise answers to these questions posed here, but as well you can figure out the answers by yourself. I have to believe that North Korea would never take the risk of nuclear strike, unless it thought it has been struck first with nuclear arms. And why is that, then? That is because the US would be forced to strike back with no other alternatives and the Mad Emperor of North Korea wants to live, not commit suicide.

And why would the US be forced to strike back, you ask? Why couldn't they just leave it be and negotiate a peace with North Korea, because the damage is already done and striking back won't alter that? This is where the game theory comes into play. The US would be forced to retaliate because otherwise their nuclear weapons would no longer work as a deterrent. If they did not retaliate, other rogue countries with nuclear weapons might think they can strike with no fear of US retaliation. Even North Korea would probably think they can do it again with no consequences. That's why the US would have no other choice than to strike back. A deterrent is a deterrent only as long as the other parties BELIEVE that you will strike back regardless.

So, the BELIEF that you will strike back is essential here. In other words, the CREDIBILITY of the fear of retaliation is everything. This fear of retaliation also works in business life, in price wars for instance. Credibility is the key word, whether it is about the fear of retaliation or your good business reputation or something else. That's why organizations and people cling so desperately to their good reputation and try to keep it untarnished. It is not because they are such decent people or decent organizations as much as it is the fear that business or other possibilities in the future are in jeopardy if they lose their credibility. If someone cheats once and it becomes known, nobody wants to do business or anything important with them any more out of fear of getting cheated, too. Because this is about the future possibilities, sometimes businesses getting out of business altogether cheat in the end. That's because they have no fear of retaliation and losing a reputation doesn't mean anything to them any more.

That's also why people want to have a good reputation in business life as in real life, too. You might find it very difficult to land a good job, if it came known to the employer that you occasionally cheat. Even if you do it once, it is a strong deterrent enough against hiring you, because your credibility as a trustworthy person is compromised. However, if the employer doesn't know it and you look the part, you're fine. So, in the end it is once again about beliefs. BELIEFS and CREDIBILITIES.

Back to the nuclear issue. What about Iran's run for the nuclear arms? Iran must have certain motives to pursue the nuclear issue so adamantly, as Israel and the US must have certain motives to try to stop that from happening. I'll not discuss the Iranian motives as I am more interested in the other side, for now.

Israel and the US strongly state that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a threat to the whole international community and Israel explicitly states that Iran might want to totally destroy Israel. Is that a credible statement? I don't think so, even if all the free thinkers in the US seem to also describe it as the real reason. I suspect they just don't want to voice the real reasons.

Let's examine this in some detail. Would Iran's nuclear arms pose any more threat than some of those little pre-Soviet countries with nuclear arms? I don't think so. Bear with me and try to follow my logic a bit. Let's try two different scenarios here. In the first, Iran would try to strike Israel with nuclear arms itself. Let's call this scenario A. In scenario B Iran would provide some terrorist organizations with nuclear arms.

In scenario A, Iran would strike Tel Aviv and/or Jerusalem with nuclear missiles. Or they could try to "wipe Israel off the map" with all their nuclear arsenal at once. What would happen? Even if Israel was totally destroyed, its submarines in the Mediterranean would launch a devastating counter-strike with nuclear weapons at Iran. Also the United States would nuke Iran, so Iran would stand to absorb terrible destruction from these two countries' armies. The first priority of Israel and the US would probably be to make sure that Iran never again fires another nuclear missile. Second priority, at least to the United States, would probably be to make sure that there would be as little damage to the oil fields as possible. Therefore the US would probably want to limit the nuclear strikes to some of the biggest cities in order to not to make the whole country uninhabitable so that no oil production could take place afterwards. Iran is one important producer of oil and that happens to be of great importance to the world economy. Anyway, all the bigger military installations inside Iran would probably be totally wiped out with conventional weapons by Israel and the US. They would not want to run the risk that Iran could strike again with nuclear weapons.

To complete the picture, it is good to notice that Israel and the US would also quite probably want to immediately take out the highest leadership in the country. Those who made the decision to use nuclear weapons in the first place. So the leadership of Iran would vanish amazingly fast either vaporized by nuclear arms or destroyed with conventional weapons.

Now, if you have followed my reasoning this far, I think you're ready to answer if Iran would ever dare to try the scenario A and strike Israel with nuclear weapons? My logic tells me that Iran would never dare, because it would amount to national suicide as well as personal suicide for the leadership. They would not dare.

What about the scenario B? No, they would not dare to sell nuclear arms to terrorist organizations for if those weapons were used and could be traced back to Iran, Iran would be held responsible. I happen to believe that the consequences of that would be quite identical to those in scenario A. So, I really don't believe Iran would try this alternative either because it is suicidal as well.

If you're still not convinced enough think about the economic repercussions on Iran's economy. What would happen economically if Iran ever struck first with nuclear arms? Even if we assume that the US and Israel would not retaliate for some reason and would even leave the Iranian leadership in tact, what would happen? Not many countries would want to trade with Iran any more and their economy would collapse. Even now they are importing about half the gasoline they need because they don't have the capacity to refine enough of their own oil. That import is plummeting right now because several international companies have recently stated that they have stopped deliveries to Iran due to the new economical sanctions approved by the United Nations. They are also having great troubles at this time with foreign investments and foreign capital and expertise they desperately crave, because international companies are less and less willing to invest in Iran because of the sanctions and the volatility of the situation. If Iran's exports and imports would plummet totally due to a nuclear strike, it's economy would collapse fast.

So, I think we have concluded clearly, that Iran would never strike first with nuclear arms for obvious reasons. Therefore I don't buy the official reasons that both Israel and the USA offer us. Israel and the United States probably have quite different motives for their efforts to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but they obviously don't want to state their real reasons.

Comment if you agree or disagree, that would be interesting to read. I would also be intrigued to learn of your opinions on what are the real motives of Israel and the US? As well as what are the motives for Iran to try to acquire nuclear arms?